- Introduction — Turning the “shock of the numbers” into execution
- Chapter 1: Translate today’s numbers into practical language
- Chapter 2: Why did it happen? — Three hypotheses are enough
- Chapter 3: Practical actions for teams new to Web3
- Chapter 4: Lessons from Pudgy Penguins
- Chapter 5: Reading deeper — “More buyers, lower sales” = opportunity
- Chapter 6: View by chain — Ethereum is mainstream but volatile
- Chapter 7: Implementation template — a small “Membership NFT” design
- Chapter 8: Checklist to minimize budget and risk
- Chapter 9: FAQ (common beginner questions)
- Chapter 10: The team’s wrap-up
- Mini glossary (super-simple)
- Finally: Your “next move” checklist
- Earn XP with a “Quest”
Introduction — Turning the “shock of the numbers” into execution
Weekly NFT sales fell 42% to about $93 million. Pudgy Penguins’ sales dropped roughly 76% week-over-week. Those figures can feel alarming, but in practice, the people who can explain “why” and “what to do next” win. This article organizes the background and countermeasures in plain language so even readers new to Web3 can follow along.
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Characters (we’ll learn through their dialogue)
Rahab / Moka / Rachel / John (project character set)
We’ll add quick definitions in parentheses.
Example: “Sales (here, total value of NFT trades),” “Chain (the type of blockchain recording transactions).”
Overall Summary Diagram
Key KPIs (Weekly NFT Market)
| Metric | Value | WoW | Notes |
|---|---|---|---|
| Total Sales (USD) | $93,000,000 | −42% | Volume fell as high-ticket trades decreased |
| Number of Buyers | + | +33% | Interest expanded; conversion upside remains |
| Number of Sellers | + | +21% | More listings; pressure on prices |
| Ethereum Sales | $35,000,000 | −65% | Large trades on the main chain slowed |
| Pudgy Penguins | — | −76% | Short-term volatility; long-term IP building is separate |
| Top Marketplace (e.g., DMarket) | $9,050,000 | Top tier | Suggests gaming-driven resilience |
Chapter 1: Translate today’s numbers into practical language
• Total sales: −42% WoW, about $93 million.
• Number of buyers: +33% (a sign that “interest actually increased”).
• Number of sellers: +21%.
• Top marketplace: DMarket at about $9.05 million.
• Leading chain: Ethereum led with about $35 million, but −65% WoW.
• Specific collection: Pudgy Penguins sales −76%.
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Rachel: “A drop in sales basically means people don’t want to buy right now, right?”
John: “Partly. But the key is that ‘the number of buyers increased.’ In other words, more people are looking. If we convert them, the wind turns in our favor. Numbers are clues to differences in audience temperature.”
Key notes
• Sales (volume) = the flow of money.
• The counts of buyers/sellers = market inflow/outflow.
• When those diverge, it means “interest exists but the trigger is weak.”
Numbers → Practical Actions (Mapping)
Metrics → Meaning → Actions (Mapping)
| Metric | Meaning (plain words) | Immediate Action |
|---|---|---|
| Sales −42% | High-ticket trades fell; total volume smaller | Strengthen the path “Free → Experience → Paid” |
| Buyers +33% | More people are coming to look | Focus on one first-purchase trigger (e.g., exclusive perk) |
| Sellers +21% | More people want to sell | Emphasize experience value over price; improve turnover |
| ETH −65% | Big trades on the main chain are quiet | Start with free distribution or low-cost experiences |
Chapter 2: Why did it happen? — Three hypotheses are enough
Hypothesis 1: Short-term expectations faded.
In weeks with fewer “big upside stories,” high-ticket trades tend to thin out, so total volume drops.
Hypothesis 2: Cool-down by chain.
Ethereum is still on top but −65% WoW — suggesting large trades on the main chain slowed.
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Hypothesis 3: Collection-specific news drought.
Pudgy Penguins is a strong IP, but in weeks light on triggers (new drops/limited events), sales swing more. The IP has also been expanding into real-world (off-chain) products. Short-term sales swings and long-term brand strategy don’t always move together.
Financial Times
Moka: “So ‘short-term sales’ and ‘long-term IP building’ are different things?”
Rahab: “Exactly. A bad week ≠ everything is bad. Split KPIs into two tiers (short/long term) and judge accordingly.”
Three Hypotheses Behind the Drop (Branching Diagram)
Cause Tree (Short-term / Chain / News)
Chapter 3: Practical actions for teams new to Web3
- Split KPIs into two tiers.
• Short-term: visits, wallet connects, first-purchase rate, secondary-market turnover (how often items trade).
• Long-term: IP recall, UGC on social, merch revenue, offline tie-ins. - Start small (PoC = proof of concept).
• Begin with a free mint (claim by paying only network fees) or invite-only community.
• Use NFTs as “membership passes” to deliver perks and early access. - Content operations.
• Don’t wait for price appreciation. Offer one weekly reason to participate (poll, live stream, exclusive wallpaper, in-store perk, etc.).
John: “NFTs aren’t just for speculation. If you plan them as an ‘upgraded membership/loyalty card,’ it clicks.”
Beginner Actions (Experience Funnel)
Three-step Funnel: Free → Value Experience → Retention
Two-tier KPIs (Short / Long Term)
| Layer | KPI Examples | Decision Guide |
|---|---|---|
| Short-term | Connection rate / First-purchase rate / Secondary-market turnover | Weekly improvement cycle |
| Long-term | IP recall / Amount of UGC / Offline sales | Evaluate monthly to quarterly |
Chapter 4: Lessons from Pudgy Penguins
• Expand brand touchpoints via the real world (toys, books, IP collabs) and build revenue outside NFTs.
• Short-term sales swing; long term is driven by “IP awareness × number of experiences.”
Financial Times
Rachel: “If you create buzz ‘outside NFTs,’ it circles back into NFT value. That’s how awareness works.”
IP Growth: Short-term Swings vs Long-term Value
Short Term (Sales Swings) vs Long Term (Brand Touchpoints)
Chapter 5: Reading deeper — “More buyers, lower sales” = opportunity
“Buyers +33%” signals new/returning audiences are looking. If conversion (the path to purchase) is the weak link, fix the experience and you can grow.
• Fixes:
A) Reduce payment friction (consolidate wallet-creation steps onto one screen).
B) Focus on one “reason to buy” (exclusive experience or early access).
C) Emphasize “experience value” over price (members-only events, etc.).
Evidence: Sales fell while both buyers and sellers rose. In other words, “the people are there.” Layer a better experience on top.
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Moka: “It’s reassuring that we can say, ‘the people are there.’”
When Buyers Rise & Sales Fall: Fix the Funnel
Improvement Points (A / B / C)
Funnel Before → After
| Item | Before | After (Recommended) |
|---|---|---|
| Wallet Creation | Complex on an external site | Completed on one screen within the site |
| Purchase Reason | Information scattered | Consolidate into one exclusive perk |
| Value Proposition | Hope for secondary resale | Promise of experience (streams / benefits) |
Chapter 6: View by chain — Ethereum is mainstream but volatile
Ethereum remains the center of the NFT market. This week, though, sales were about $35 million and down sharply (−65%). In “cool” weeks for the main chain, casual users tend to wait and see. Structure initiatives as “free entry → paid experience later.”
crypto.news
+1
Rahab: “Starting free lowers the psychological hurdle. Get them in first; then let a paid experience prove the value.”
View by Chain (Mainstream & Volatility)
Sales Composition (Example)
| Chain | Sales (Example) | WoW | Strategy Direction |
|---|---|---|---|
| Ethereum | $35,000,000 | −65% | Two-step path: free entry → paid later |
| Other Major Chains | — | — | Choose based on fees and experience |
| Others | — | — | Match to community characteristics |
Chapter 7: Implementation template — a small “Membership NFT” design
Goal: Raise LTV (customer lifetime value).
Design:
• Supply: 20–30% of your existing fan base (don’t make it so scarce that newcomers can’t join).
• Acquisition: free distribution + light missions (social post, newsletter signup, in-store visit).
• Perks: monthly exclusive stream, early sales, offline benefits.
• Measurement: connect rate, first-participation rate, next-month retention, secondary-market turnover.
John: “The win condition is ‘how many stay connected.’ Grow the relationship, not just the price.”
Small Design Template for Membership NFTs
Design Template (Distribution / Perks / Measurement)
| Element | Recommended Setting | Tip |
|---|---|---|
| Supply | 20–30% of existing fans | Avoid excessive scarcity |
| Acquisition | Free distribution + light mission | Lower the participation barrier |
| Perks | Monthly exclusive stream / early sales | Regularity and scarcity |
| Measurement | Connection rate / First-participation rate / Next-month retention | Directly informs funnel improvement |
Chapter 8: Checklist to minimize budget and risk
• Fees (gas): even free distribution can incur small costs.
• Legal: wording/ToS that won’t be mistaken for investment solicitation.
• Operations: prepare one weekly reason to participate.
• BCP: a backup communication plan for social outages/backlash.
• KPIs: short term (connect/first-purchase/turnover), long term (recall/UGC/offline revenue).
Rachel: “Once the ‘to-dos’ click, it’s not scary.”
Visualizing Budget and Risk
Risk Matrix (Impact × Probability)
Chapter 9: FAQ (common beginner questions)
Q: NFTs seem hard.
A: Think “digital membership pass”—a key to perks and experiences.
Q: Why act now if sales are falling?
A: More buyers = interest exists. Those who fix the mechanics and experience pull ahead in the next wave.
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Q: Which chain should we choose?
A: Start with Ethereum for its track record and documentation. There are fee/traffic swings, so a free-first structure is safer.
crypto.news
+1
Q: Is Pudgy Penguins okay?
A: While short-term sales fluctuate, the IP has been expanding into real-world products like toys. Judge short-term numbers and long-term brand building on separate axes.
Financial Times
FAQ (Frequently Asked Questions)
Beginner Questions
Q. Is NFT difficult?
Q. Why act now if sales are falling?
Q. Which chain should we choose?
Chapter 10: The team’s wrap-up
Rahab: “Numbers aren’t the enemy. They’re signposts.”
Moka: “The people are there. Move them with the experience.”
Rachel: “Free entry → value experience → retention. Like producing a track—stages matter.”
John: “Split KPIs into short and long term. That’s how you avoid getting lost.”
One-sheet takeaways
• Sales −42% but buyers +33%. Bet on the fact that “the people are there.”
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• Ethereum is mainstream but bumpy. Start free to lower friction.
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• IP strength grows with real-world touchpoints. Judge short-term swings and long-term building separately.
Financial Times
Wrap-up by the Four Characters (Key Bullets)
Key Notes
Mini glossary (super-simple)
• NFT: Not the image itself, but “proof of ownership” of that image.
• Chain: The transaction ledger. Speed and cost differ by chain.
• Secondary market: Where users trade with each other after the initial sale.
• Mint: To issue (create) an NFT.
• Gas fee: The fee paid when transacting.
• UGC: User-generated content (fan-made posts and media).
Mini Glossary
Simple Terms
| Term | Easy Explanation |
|---|---|
| NFT | “Proof of ownership” for digital items. Not the image itself, but the entitlement. |
| Chain | The transaction ledger. Speed and cost differ by chain. |
| Secondary Market | A marketplace where users trade after the initial sale. |
| Mint | To issue (create) an NFT. |
| Gas Fee | The fee paid when making transactions. |
| UGC | User-generated content created voluntarily by fans. |
Finally: Your “next move” checklist
□ Set the goal as “deepen relationships with a membership pass.”
□ Design the three steps: free entry → value experience → retention.
□ Split KPIs into short/long term.
□ Offer one weekly reason to participate.
□ Plan “real-world touchpoints” like merch and events.
Earn XP with a “Quest”
We’ve prepared a small “Quest” to put this article into practice. Participate and report back to earn XP and get a shot at rewards. This week, start by “adding one free-entry pathway.” Feel your “next move” through the numbers.
CTA: Earn XP with a Quest
This Week’s Quest
| Mission | Completion Criteria | XP Earned |
|---|---|---|
| Add one “free entry” path | Place a one-click entry on your site | +50 |
| Prepare one exclusive experience | Members-only stream / wallpaper / early access | +30 |
| Track first-purchase rate | Review weekly on your dashboard | +20 |
Progress Bar A bar showing progress toward total XP. Total Goal: 100 XP Progress: 70 XP / 100 XP Earn a chance at rewards. Keep stacking XP next week too.
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